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Prediction for CME (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-09T02:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33873/-1
CME Note: Bright fast halo CME associated with the X1.8 class flare from AR 3848 (N13W08) and a significant eruption marked by an EUV wave, a large area of deep dimming and bright post-eruptive arcades. Associated with this CME there was also a initially slowly developing eruption of a very large filament spanning from N20W15 to N15W55 to the northeast of the Active Region 3848 which started prior to the X flare (~2024-10-08T22:19Z).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T14:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.67
Dst min. in nT: -335
Dst min. time: 2024-10-11T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T11:59Z (-3.94h, +3.22h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 99.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/10/08 02:00Z
Plane of Sky 1: 06:15Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 06:45Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
POS Difference: 00:30
POS Midpoint: 06:30Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:30

Numeric View/Impact Type: 4
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.55
Travel Time: ~7.55 * 4:30 = 33:59

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-10T11:59Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/10/09 12:56Z

Lead Time: 24.80 hour(s)
Difference: 2.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-10-09T13:58Z

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